INSIGHTS

Average 401(k) balances drop 3% due to market volatility, Fidelity says

A few months of market swings have taken a toll on retirement savers.

The average 401(k) balance fell 3% in the first quarter of 2025 to $127,100, according to a new report by Fidelity Investments, the nation’s largest provider of 401(k) plans.

The average individual retirement account balance also sank 4% from the previous quarter to $121,983, the financial services firm found. Still, both 401(k) and IRA balances were up year over year.

TO READ MORE VISIT:  https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/04/average-401k-balances-fall-due-to-market-volatility-fidelity-says.html

Basel III and the Gold Market

As Basel III comes into force, we look at the impact of the Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR) on the gold market.

There has been much debate about the implications of Basel III on the bullion industry. What is clear is that the under the current rules the cost to banks of holding gold on balance sheet will increase – the NSFR requires 85% of required stable funding. This is punitive and does not acknowledge the highly liquid nature of gold, and the way gold is often transacted as a currency. 

TO READ MORE VISIT:  https://www.gold.org/goldhub/gold-focus/2021/06/basel-iii-and-gold-market

Gold Market Commentary: Let them eat tariffs

Gold prices ended the month of May almost flat (-0.7%) at US$3,278, albeit with some intra-month volatility. Year-to-date, gold remains up a staggering 26% (Table 1). 

Our Gold Return Attribution Model (GRAM) suggests that tariff-related policy risk, a rise in inflation expectations (both Risk and Uncertainty factors) and lagged follow-through from the dollar plunge in April contributed positively, while ETF outflows and the strong gold return in April (both Momentum factors) were drags on returns in May (Chart 1). 

ETF outflows of US$1.8bn (-19t) were dominated by North America (-US$1.5bn, -16t), on a pause in tariff tensions. Following a sizeable drop in COMEX managed money net longs in April, investors increased net positions slightly by the equivalent of US$0.5bn (4t) in May. They remain well off the highs reached in December 2024 (35% net long as a % of open interest) sitting just above 13%.

TO READ MORE VISIT:  https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-market-commentary-may-2025

Gold Demand By Country: Historical Demand and Supply

Gold’s diverse uses, in jewelry, technology and by central banks and investors, mean different sectors of the gold market rise to prominence at different points in the global economic cycle. This diversity of demand and self-balancing nature of the gold market underpin gold’s robust qualities as an investment asset. 

This is a comprehensive time series of gold demand – broken down by sector and country – and gold supply – broken down by mine production, recycling and producer hedging.

TO READ MORE VISIT: https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/gold-demand-by-country

The S&P 500 could crash nearly 50% as a brutal recession takes hold, veteran technical analyst warns

Veteran technical analyst Milton Berg warns of a potential 50% crash in the S&P 500 as the US economy heads into a severe recession. Highlighting concerns about Wall Street's complacency regarding recession risks and noting the economy's weakness could worsen. Berg also points to potential losses in fixed-income portfolios due to rising interest rates, with Silicon Valley Bank's troubles as an early warning. He cites technical indicators suggesting a bear-market rally and a rare money supply decline as worrisome factors. Berg anticipates a recession and a possible banking crisis that could lead to a 20% to 45% drop in the S&P 500.

TO READ MORE VISIT: https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-crash-berg-economy-recession-svb-banking-crisis-2023-9

Trader who predicted 2008 financial crisis bets $1.6bn on stock market crash by end of 2023

Michael Burry, known for correctly predicting the 2008 housing market collapse and portrayed in "The Big Short," is now forecasting a Wall Street crash by the end of this year. Burry has reportedly placed bets exceeding $1.6 billion on this event occurring in 2023. Recent SEC filings reveal his negative options on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, both representing the broader US economy. Burry is said to be committing over 90% of his portfolio to this market downturn prediction. His fund, Scion Asset Management, has acquired substantial stakes in put options for these stock-market indexes, providing the right to sell assets at specific prices.

TO READ MORE VISIT: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/michael-burry-stock-market-big-short-b2395947.html

The S&P 500 is massively overvalued - and likely to plunge like it did last year, top economist David Rosenberg says

David Rosenberg, President of Rosenberg Research, is warning investors to prepare for a potential repeat of last year's stock market slump, citing factors like China's deflation, US government credit rating downgrade, and a looming credit crunch. He highlights overvaluation in US stocks, low equity-risk premiums, and suggests investors consider undervalued US Treasuries, stocks in Canada and Asia (excluding China), and gold. Rosenberg has been cautioning about economic risks and consumer debt amid rising inflation and interest rates, comparing the current market hype to historical market crashes.

TO READ MORE VISIT: https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-crash-spx-david-rosenberg-china-downgrades-2023-8